In a report dated 30 July 2024, The Times newspaper reported that newly installed Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has told UEFA officials that he backs a “£310 million bailout” for the currently derelict Casement Park GAA stadium in Andersonstown, to support the hosting of Euro 2028 matches in Northern Ireland.

It is unclear from the media reports exactly how much money might be provided by the British government. With an estimated total cost of £310 million, the Casement Park project faces a shortfall that is currently estimated at over £200 million.

The problem is that Sir Keir’s reported backing for the Casement Park project exposes the UK Government to a number of significant risks to the public purse, including:

• Setting a precedent for UK Government funding of privately sponsored new stadia. Alternatively, an open invitation to stadium promoters across the UK to ask for public funds.
• Substantial cost over-runs are a recurring and inevitable feature of new-build stadium projects. Alternatively, is the UK Government willing to commit to a blank cheque, for the Casement Park project? That cannot conceivably be justified.
• Value for money – the Casement Park project will not generate sufficient benefits to outweigh the public funds being thrown at what is, in effect, a white elephant.
• The delay risk – the stadium is unlikely to be redeveloped in time for the 2028 Euros, thereby exacerbating the value-for-money risk. Currently, the project does not have a contractor in place. Even if that problem was resolved, other sources of delay include the need for a redesign to meet UEFA’s specifications, planning issues and dealing with the fact that the Casement Park ground is contaminated with asbestos.

The precedent risk is already taking shape. As reported by Sky News, on 19th May 2024, the Manchester United owner, Jim Ratcliffe, was suggesting that the proposed new Manchester United stadium should be public funded. The cost for their new stadium has been estimated at between £2.5 and £3 billion.

The ongoing problems facing Everton’s new Bramley Dock stadium vividly illustrate the cost over-run risk. Costs for their new stadium have rocketed from an estimate of £500 million to £800 million but further recent speculation suggests the final cost could be over £900 million and closer to £1 billion. (See July Update).

The spiralling costs of Bramley Dock have not only delayed the building completion date, but now also sees the owners struggling to find the rest of the funds they need to complete the stadium.

Casement Park will inevitably face the same cost over-run and delay problems. The current £310 million estimated cost is nowhere near enough.

Judging from the Bramley Dock experience, the final costs for Casement Park will more likely be in the region of £500 to £600 million.

Another recent example of spiralling cost is the proposed Hampden Park refurbishment which was not planned as a total rebuild. The intention was to add new seating to bring the spectators closer to the pitch. The architect behind that project, Eberhard Becker, told Herald Sport back in 2018 that it would cost around £90 million to carry out such a refurbishment at Hampden. But now, Mike Mulraney (President of the Scottish FA) – who made his personal fortune in construction – estimates those costs to have skyrocketed to around £250 million. This most likely means that due to the spiralling cost it may never happen.

The clear message is that stadium building Projects are all coming in way above projected costs. The Bramley Dock example in particular illustrates how building costs have rocketed with actual costs coming in hundreds of millions of pounds over and above the initial estimates.

Therefore why should Casement Park be any different? The latest estimate of £310 million is without doubt well short of the final cost and why £600 million is likely to be a more accurate figure.

To begin with, over £12 million has already been spent by the GAA from the original pot of £62.5 million in funding from the Northern Ireland Executive, and it needs to be ascertained if this is included in the £310 million. There is also the £32+ million to clear the toxic waste from below the current site before any building work can begin.
(see our July update, but also listen to Declan Bogue’s statement on Radio Ulster that refers to the £32m cost of removing toxic waste beneath Casement Park).

It should also be reminded that the Buckingham Group who were the original main builder for Casement Park went bankrupt (citing the spiralling costs of building in particular sports stadiums).

What has yet to be determined is if a new builder can be found for the Casement Park project, without them being given a blank cheque by the Government.

While it is unlikely that Casement Park could be built by June 2027 in time for the Euros in 2028, the UK Treasury would be exposed to a much greater final bill if they were to stipulate to any proposed new builder a requirement that the time limitations should be met. In those circumstances, any appointed contractor would undoubtedly demand a blank cheque, before commencing any construction work.

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Spiralling costs and delays: The Bramley Dock example

Everton’s Bramley Dock stadium (also on the list of Euro 2028 stadia) provides a perfect example of the problems facing any new Casement Park construction.

Designed by MEIS Architects and Pattern Architects, the Everton Stadium – as it will officially be known to begin with – is being built by Dartford-based construction company, Laing O’Rourke. Initially, the estimated cost for the stadium was around £500 million. While Everton already had a good portion of that funding in place, the club still needed to find the remaining £220 million as of 2018.

In January 2020, Everton announced that they had agreed naming rights with USM worth a reported £30m. USM already sponsored Everton’s training ground, Finch Farm. Later on it was also announced that the club would seek out help from major international banks, JP Morgan and MUFG to help secure the finance to ensure the stadium would be built.

In 2022, the club then went on to announce that Liverpool City Council would not be offering a loan to the club to help with the build.

In September 2023, Everton received a £100 million loan from MSP Sports Capital to help fund the new stadium build.
In the same month, majority shareholder Farhad Moshiri announced an agreement to sell his 94.1% stake in the club to 777 Partners. This takeover fell through, along with a proposal from The Friedkin Group a month later, leaving uncertainty for the long-term future of the club. How this will affect the funding of the stadium build is yet to become clear, but Moshiri has insisted the potential takeover would guarantee the full construction of the new ground.

As recently as, May 2024, it was reported that an American private equity firm had offered a £150 million loan deal to Everton to help fill the shortfall of funding required to finish building their new Bramley Dock stadium at Bramley Dock.

The latest article on July 19th 2024 from the ESK (an Everton supporter’s website) further highlights that their new stadium at Bramley Dock has become something of a millstone for that football club .

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Are pensioners in England and Wales set to be paying for Casement Park?

The scenario of pensioners paying for the development of new football stadia is now seemingly in place following the most recent plans of the new Labour government under Keir Starmer.

At the same time that Starmer was telling UEFA of his support for the redevelopment of Casement Park, Rachel Reeves, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced that the Labour government would be scrapping the winter fuel allowance for those living in England and Wales. However, as expected, this will see serious opposition to her proposal.

Age UK have set up a petition to have this decision reversed, for the following reasons :

“Cutting the Winter Fuel Payment this winter, with virtually no notice and no compensatory measures to protect poor and vulnerable pensioners, is the wrong policy decision.

Millions of struggling pensioners won’t receive up to £300 they rely on to pay their bills.

We believe as many as two million pensioners who find paying their energy bills a real stretch will be seriously hit by this cut”

Just to do a quick calculation on those figures. If £300 is taken from the 2 million vulnerable pensioners as quoted by Age UK this would amount to £600 million. This £600 million is much more likely be the final cost of a completed Casement Park, given the experience of projects such as Everton’s Bramley Dock.

Is this how Keir Starmer and his Labour government are intending to find the funds for Casement Park? If so ,what happens to Everton, Manchester United and indeed other sports stadiums, who are seeking to modernise their stadiums and grounds? Surely they would all justifiably then expect, to now also have public funding for their projects, which Jim Ratcliffe has already alluded to.

Without doubt there is a far greater case at present, for taxpayer’s money to be used in the areas of our society that are in dire need. To find now that pensioners in England and Wales would be deprived of their Winter Fuel Payments and that the funds ‘saved’ by the Government could end up paying for Casement Park would be further morally unjustified.